Fantasy Stock Market Watch: T.Y. Hilton & DeVante Parker
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. That’s probably an accurate description of T.Y Hilton and DeVante Parker’s seasons so far.
However, all hope is not lost…for one of them. Here’s a look at these two receivers’ outlook and fantasy stock value for the rest of the season, and what you should do with them.
BULL MARKET: Get off T.Y. Hilton While the Getting is Good
T.Y. Hilton, the best performing wide receiver this past week, was one of the worst in Week 8.
On Sunday, Hilton racked up five catches for 175 yards and two touchdowns. The week before that, he only had two catches for 15 yards.
This has been the theme of Hilton’s 2017 season. With Jacoby Brissett throwing to him instead of Andrew Luck, Hilton’s targets and performances have lacked consistency.
But it wasn’t supposed to be this way. At the start of the season, Hilton fantasy owners were under the impression that Luck was returning early on in the season. They would only have to deal with Scott Tolzien for a few weeks, and then it would be back to the Luck show.
No luck there (sorry, bad dad joke). Luck isn’t coming back this season, which leaves Hilton and the Colts in the hands of Jacoby Brissett, who they acquired from the Patriots.
This makes Hilton’s outlook for the rest of the season much murkier. So far, Hilton’s only had three weeks where he scored double-digit points. However, those three weeks were huge:
Week 3: 153 yards and a touchdown
Week 5: 177 yards
Week 9: 175 yards and two touchdowns
Outside of those three explosive weeks, he’s only topped more than 50 yards once and didn’t score any touchdowns.
In those three “boom” weeks, the Colts played the Browns (Week 3), the 49ers (Week 5) and the Texans (Week 9). Those teams combine for a total of three wins (all from the Texans).
Perhaps it would be better to look at where the Browns, 49ers, and Texans defenses rank against the pass.
Right now, the 49ers rank 28th (out of 32), the Browns rank 17th, and the Texans rank 20th. Nothing spectacular.
Now let’s look at Hilton’s upcoming schedule. He plays the Steelers this week (2nd against the pass), then the Titans (18th), then the Jaguars (1st), then the Bills (22nd), then the Broncos (3rd), then the Ravens (10th), and then the Texans again (20th).
Just looking at his schedule reveals that three out of his remaining seven games are against the top three pass defenses. That’s enough for me to be scared of starting Hilton. Put Brissett and the Colts offense on top of that, and you have me really worried.
Look, this has nothing to do with Hilton’s skills. He is a very talented receiver that deserves to be on a better team. But it has everything to do with the situation he’s in and the quarterback that’s throwing to him.
In PPR, Hilton just put up 34.5 points. He has never been more valuable this season (besides draft day), which is why now is the time to trade him away. Get off the wild ride that Hilton is giving his fantasy owners, and stop chasing his “boom” weeks.
If you need more running back talent, try trading Hilton for someone like Chris Thompson, Christian McCaffrey, or Lamar Miller. If you want to try and trade him for another wide receiver, aim for players like Amari Cooper or Devante Parker. Whatever you do, try your best to get rid of him. Otherwise, it’s going to be a bumpy few weeks.
UPTICK WARNING: DeVante Parker has Arrived
On the positive side, there are some receivers that have been steadily rising, instead of rising and falling every other week like Hilton. DeVante Parker is one of those risers.
Take a look at these two tweets from Graham Barfield: Even though he has old man Jay Cutler throwing to him, Parker has become Cutler’s favorite target (besides the check-throws to the running backs). While Jarvis Landry is good for the short routes, Parker has the big play ability that has him primed for a breakout.
His upcoming schedule is promising, as well. He has a matchup with the Panthers (13th against the pass) this week, and then he gets the failing Buccaneers (26th), the Patriots (31st), the Broncos (3rd), the Patriots again, the Bills (22nd), the Chiefs (30th), and then the Bills again.
That’s the kind of juicy schedule I like.
Right now, Parker’s value is still low enough that you can get him for a decent price, and he’s worth it. If you’ve been plagued by wide receiver woes, Parker is a prime target. His value is about to go up, so buy him while you can.
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